Blog Post 3 - Unit 4 Discussion Board - CS875: Futuring and Innovation - Colorado Technical University (CTU)

 Group Decision-Making Methods

               Group decision-making is a great way to increase productivity and innovation, while also managing risks and costs (Bessant & Tidd, 2024). Organizations scan enhance/supplement their offerings by partnering with strategic partners. Often, mitigating risk is another great reason to incorporate outside agencies in a group decision-making network. Some group decision-making methods are: Brainstorming (free-think group sessions to generate ideas/solve problems), Normal Group Technique (anonymous open-ended participant feedback), Delphi Method (anonymous feedback solicited surveys), and Dialectical Inquiry (participant teams for/against an idea) (LUCID, n.d.; Organizational Psychology Degrees, 2024; Sarkissian, 2002; Think and Knowledge (T. A. K.) Tank, 2019).

Delphi Method

               The Delphi group decision-making method involves soliciting expert feedback anonymously, and through an iterative/several rounds process (Merit, 2024). By questioning experts and enhancing follow-up questions, the Delphi method expert consensus achieved is thought of to be more reliable and objective than one expert alone (Khodyakov, 2023). Sub-methods, such as: The RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method and ExpertLens®. The RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method incorporates two questioning rounds, with a discussion round between them; however, this method violates anonymity, and limits the participant size to 18. ExpertLens® use open discussion as well, but they do it through anonymous channels and discussion boards; statistical and mixed-method analysis are considered.

Delphi Applied to Artificial Intelligence (AI)

               Expert-based Delphi scenario planning can be applied to Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems to get ahead of risks while developing risk-mitigation strategies (Merit, 2024). While the Delphi technique is designed to provide anonymity, biases can exist, depending on how questions are designed. The fact that AI evolves quickly, the traditional Delphi iterative process needs an enhancement from Natural Language Processing (NLP) systems so that data can be analyzed and disseminated quickly. Soliciting expert feedback while using modern and streamlined resources can greatly enhance group decision-making teams.

ExpertLens® Delphi Method

               The ExpertLens® method was developed by RAND co-workers in the late 2000s, and was developed to conduct Delphi panels online, while also keeping anonymity and engaging large groups (Khodyakov, 2023). Four primary goals for the ExpertLens method are: larger expert participant pools; unlimited geographical regions; mixed-methods (qualitative and quantitative) feedback allowed; and use of statistical methods to make group decisions. There are four rounds that exclusive experts are put through (rounds 0 – 3). Round zero consists of brainstorming. Round one involves questions based on round 0 inputs. Round two is a statistical review of round one’s responses. Finally, in round three participants re-answer the questions from round one.

Plop Method

               Somewhat opposite of the Delphi group decision-making method is the Plop method (Think and Knowledge (T. A. K.) Tank, 2019). The Plop method focuses on participant-feedback, iterative stages, and essentially any idea to be debated. While commonly used, it is considered not to be appropriate for all group types or decisions. This technique is good for developing new ideas and solutions by allowing members to voice completely separate ideas to mee the group’s goals. Whether participants provide direct feedback or not, their vote is counted as such. Using the Plop method is more informal, less reliable, and can be influenced by politics.

Compare and Contrast

               Looking at the Delphi, the ExpertLens®, or the Plop group decision-making methods, they all have their pros and cons. The Delphi method seems to be the most anonymous and effective group decision-making method for in-person groups. The ExpertLens® method seems to be more appropriate for geographically-dispersed participants, and/or for modern convenience. The Plop method may be better suited for early idea generation, informal groups, brainstorming, and critical group decision-making tasks. All of these methods incorporate group decision-making approaches.

References

Bessant, J. R., & Tidd, J. (2024). Managing Innovation: Integrating Technological, Market and Organizational Change (8th ed.). Wiley Global Education US. Retrieved from https://coloradotech.vitalsource.com/reader/books/9781394252053/epubcfi/6/32[%3Bvnd.vst.idref%3DAc07]!/4

Khodyakov, D. D. (2023, October 17). Generating evidence using the Delphi method. Retrieved from rand.org: https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2023/10/generating-evidence-using-the-delphi-method.html

LUCID. (n.d.). What is dialectical inquiry? Retrieved January 30, 2025, from lucidmeetings.com: https://www.lucidmeetings.com/glossary/dialectical-inquiry

Merit, B. B. (2024, October 29). Group Decision-Making Methods: Delphi, Red Team-Blue Team, and StepLadder techniques in AI security. Retrieved from medium.com: https://medium.com/@beyondmerit/group-decision-making-methods-delphi-red-team-blue-team-and-stepladder-techniques-in-ai-security-296495fcc0bb

Organizational Psychology Degrees. (2024, April 13). 5 Group Decision making Techniques - Organizational Psychology degrees. Retrieved from organizationalpsychologydegrees.com: https://www.organizationalpsychologydegrees.com/lists/5-group-decision-making-techniques/

Think and Knowledge (T. A. K.) Tank. (2019, July 6). Think tank methods. Retrieved from thinkanknowledgetank.home.blog: https://thinkandknowledgetank.home.blog/2019/07/06/think-tank-methods-2/