Blog Post 5 - Unit 5 Discussion Board 2 - CS875: Futuring and Innovation - Colorado Technical University (CTU)

Infamous Predictions that Have Come True
https://tylerscafidi.blogspot.com/2025/02/blog-post-5-unit-5-discussion-board-2.html

               Many discoveries, business innovations, science fiction, and theories often become realistic and practical. Not all of them, but there are many instances where novels or fictitious works were reverse-engineered, based on scientific evidence at the time, or were inevitable. One of the most iconic television shows from my childhood was The Jetsons. The Jetsons was a cartoon television series that was premiered in 1962, and was based on the year 2062 (The Columbus Dispatch, 2012). Many predictions about the future were made, but not all came true.

Predictive Innovation Summary

               Created as a futuristic version of a previous television show Barbera and Hanna created, The Flintstones, The Jetsons television series ran from 1962 until 1963, and produced 75 episodes over three seasons (IMDb, n.d.). However, I remember watching it on regular/prime television programming as a young child in the 1990s. So, the series had a significant impact on society and culture. It was created by Joseph Barbera (born in 1911) and William Hanna (born in 1910). Both were high-school graduates that were involved in the film industry, but did not necessarily have the depth of first-hand knowledge needed to predict some of the future innovations that came to be true.

The creators were inspired by a magazine article’s (Figure 1) futuristic prediction, printed over five years prior about the year 2000, but with their prior successes in the film/studio industry, some creative imagination, and leaps into futuristic thinking, they were able to make one of the most iconic futuristic cartoon television shows that had several predictions come true (Novak, 2024). Some of the predictions made about the future include: flying cars, vertical cities, smart bathrooms, robot assistance, smart home, video meetings, jetpacks, flat screen televisions, and dog treadmills (Russell, 2023). However, I think one of the most significant predictions made was about video meetings (Figure 2), which has revolutionized remote communications, the workforce, and geographical reach.

Figure 1

One influential futuristic depiction of life, which inspired The Jetsons creators’ predictions.

  
Note: Southland magazine’s rendition of life in the year 2000 (lesmachins, n.d.).

 

Figure 2

Depiction of digital video communication on The Jetsons Television Series
Note: Penny Singleton (the primary female character/wife) in The Jetsons (1962) (IMDb, n.d.).

 

Digital video communication has had a major impact on modern culture. It has enabled employers to offer products and services, conduct meetings, and hire from a more diverse pool of candidates, while also typically increasing profitability by not needing as much overhead. People use video communication in their personal lives ever day, from video cell phone calls, virtual meetings, remote support, and many others. While inventions like flat screen televisions, vertical cities, smart bathrooms, robot assistants, smart bathrooms, etc. have also become reality and contributed to profitable markets, digital and remote communications have made many of those realities possible.

Forces that Made it Successful

               The creators lived during a time of significant innovation and tumultuous times (i.e. Titanic, World War I, World War II, the Space Race, stop gap animation/Disney, free love, segregation revolution, The Vietnam War, etc.). However, there is an issue of Southland magazine, from November 4, 1956, that had many futuristic predictions about American home futures, and is thought of as having contributed much inspiration for The Jetsons (Novak, 2024). During that period of American history, creativity and idealism was how great innovations/companies were made. The digital landscape we know today, with every resource, product, or service at our fingertips, did not provide any help to Barbera and Hanna.

Conclusion

Relying on hope, taking risks, and live discussions were often the norm to success in the 1960s. Curiosity, imagination, taking risks, being vulnerable, and making leaps and bounds in history have a symbiotic relationship. Today, inventing something new or original is very hard, especially with the large companies and research firms that have tons of money to throw at those initiatives. Often, most of the newer inventions today are derivatives of original creations/work by others.

The opportunities to be the next Einstein or Barbera and Hanna creators exist, but the borders to entry are often very high. I have even looked into the debate about creating something new, which I read was described by a famous scientist that if you can imagine it, it likely already exists. In reality, I take that to mean that if you can imagine it, the ability to create it must exist, as it is based on your current understanding/abilities. Overall, exploration, experimentation, curiosity, imagination, creativity, originality, and just being active in life, even when there are failures, is one great way to be that next revolutionary superstar. One thing is for certain, not implementing scenario planning, forecasting, or any of those things will almost certainly not lead you to fame through creation.

References

IMDb. (n.d.). Joseph Barbera. Retrieved February 6, 2025, from imdb.com: https://www.imdb.com/name/nm0053484/bio/

IMDb. (n.d.). The Jetsons. Retrieved February 6, 2025, from imdb.com: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0055683/

IMDb. (n.d.). William Hanna. Retrieved February 6, 2025, from imdb.com: https://www.imdb.com/name/nm0360253/bio/

Infoplease. (2024, January 12). Current events: news from the United States and across the world. Retrieved from infoplease.com: https://www.infoplease.com/current-events

lesmachins. (n.d.). LES MACHINS. Retrieved February 6, 2025, from lesmachins.tublr.com: https://lesmachins.tumblr.com/post/726033026527657984/november-4-1956-edition-of-southland-magazine

Novak, M. (2024, October 8). What inspired the creators of the Jetsons? — Paleofuture. Retrieved from paleofuture.com: https://paleofuture.com/blog/2024/10/7/what-inspired-the-creators-of-the-jetsons

Russell, M. (2023, February 22). 10 things the Jetsons got right. Retrieved from blog.3ds.com: https://blog.3ds.com/topics/company-news/10-things-the-jetsons-got-right/

The Columbus Dispatch. (2012, September 23). Space-Age: How the Jetsons turned a bunch of kids into scientists. Retrieved from dispatch.com: https://www.dispatch.com/story/news/technology/2012/09/23/space-age-how-jetsons-turned/23775330007/

Blog Post 5 - Unit 5 Discussion Board 1 - CS875: Futuring and Innovation - Colorado Technical University (CTU)

 Scenario Planning and Forecasting

               Scenario planning and forecasting are two natural and critical components to survival (Cloud Doing Good, 2023; Galt, n.d.). Both are used to anticipate future events, contingency plan, and require some introspection. Baxter (2019) describes scenario planning as a more casual process. It can be just imagining different weather conditions for a future trip, bill planning, etc.

Wade (2023) provided an overview on the importance of forecasting. He described Einstein as a great nuclear scientist, but not necessarily a great CEO as scientists focus more on the information available now. He also mentioned that generational values change, but also require the cumulative history that came before it. His approach to forecasting seemed to be more detail-driven, sometimes exhaustive, and structured than scenario planning.

Scenario Planning

Baxter described scenario planning as not merely predicting what nobody else has predicted, but rather about deriving other meanings/thoughts about things people already know about/have seen (Baxter, 2019). He also mentioned that thinking too far ahead in future planning is hard for some to think about, and often use as a reason not to do it. He suggested that people look six years into the future. Investing in a potentially rewarding scenario is how people should approach scenario planning.

Baxter also discussed how changing work environments and generational norms influence and require flexibility and adaptability (Baxter, 2019). For instance, he described a “BBC-style” and “Hollywood-style” approach to work where the BBC-style approach is more about long-term employment and roles, whereas the Hollywood-style approach was about targeted project teams that come together to achieve specific goals. He described the BBC-style approach as more authoritarian and top to pancake view. The Hollywood-style approach is more of the flexible environment suggested to operate in modern teams. Building some flexibility/portability into the work model certainly offers many benefits.

Advantages of scenario planning can be: risk mitigation, strategic flexibility, informed decision making, improved innovation, enhanced competitive advantage, and stakeholder alignment (Cloud Doing Good, 2023). Some of the disadvantages include: resource intensive, uncertain outcomes, assumption-based, and overemphasis on short-term scenarios. However, scenario planning is important and normal for most people to perform, and can be about simple things. Over-planning more than executing can become an issue for many people though.

Scenario planning is also divided into quantitative, operational, normative, and strategic management types (Cloud Doing Good, 2023). Quantitative scenario planning is common for best- and worst-case scenarios, limited number of variables that have great impact, and annual business forecasting. Operational scenario planning is more internal, and focused on short-term objectives. Normative scenario planning is somewhat preferable as it is concerned with achieving specific goals (i.e. working backwards from a goal), can combine multiple types of scenario planning, and is not necessarily always based on organizational goals. Finally, strategic management scenario planning looks at the overall products and services consumption environment, can be very high-level, and may even require futurist consultants.

Traditional Forecasting

               Systematically planning for the worst-, best-, and most-likely-case scenario seemed to be the main focus of traditional forecasting (Wade, 2023). Those who do forecasting most likely consider these main three factors in nearly everything from investments, consulting, sales/pricing offers, billing, contingency planning, etc. Wade discusses that many factors go into forecasting: tweaking numbers, timing of events, costs, contingencies, etc. Truly, a dedicated team is needed to maintain this on a regular basis, but there are some Artificial Intelligence tools that can help define, plan, and monitor these future planning metrics.

               Forecasting has its advantages and disadvantages, like anything else. Some of the advantages can be valuable insight gained, trial-and-error learning, and cost reduction (Galt, n.d.). Disadvantages may include: not always accurate, can consume a lot of time and resources, and can relatively expensive. Forecasting takes scenario planning a step further by incorporating highly-granular/detailed information from all available sources: past, present, and future. Where scenario planning may include top-level information like tomorrow it may rain, forecasting may describe every aspect of tomorrow’s weather, such as: barometric pressure, temperatures, fluctuations, time variables, air quality, real-weather feel, humidity, etc. to plan with better data.

Conclusion        

Sometimes, little-to-no information is available to forecast or make predictions from. However, incorporating scenario planning will serve the planners/stakeholders better than waiting to put out a preventable event. Starting with a rough plan, and then adding and refining the model over time is better than being stuck without a plan, or trying to plan too much. The future is not entirely predictable though, and building resiliency, contingency, and flexible/adaptive response plans (i.e. Plan A, Plan B, etc.) will give facilitators a big head start on dealing with the unknown. While education is somewhat under attack in the United States right now, many people can get great jobs by looking-up a lot of things, some situations and roles require immediate action that education provides. It would not be good for a surgeon performing critical surgery to have no scenario or forecasting done ahead of time.

References

Baxter, O. (2019, June 21). Scenario Planning - The Future of Work and Place | Oliver Baxter | TEDxALC. Retrieved from youtube.com: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XAFGRGm2WxY

Cloud Doing Good. (2023, November 20). Scenario Planning: Advantages, disadvantages, and strategy. Retrieved from clouddoingood.com: https://www.cloudoingood.com/insights/scenario-planning

Galt, J. (n.d.). 3 Advantages and 3 Disadvantages of forecasting. Retrieved February 6, 2025, from johngalt.com: https://johngalt.com/learn/blog/3-advantages-disadvantages-of-forecasting

Wade, W. (2023, July 28). Scenario planning: thinking differently about future innovation. Retrieved from youtube.com: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-CccEPJJ7k