Project 2025 & Big Beautiful Bill (BBB) Strategic Analysis
Fiscal Outlook, Tariff Impacts, Social, Humanitarian, Conflict, and Climate Risks (2026–2075)
Analysis date:
August 8, 2025
1. Executive Summary
This comprehensive report synthesizes US budget, policy, and
risk data (2024–2075), cross-referencing all provided files and the Big
Beautiful Bill (BBB). It covers fiscal/economic projections, Social Security
solvency, cost of living, housing, humanitarian/ICC accountability, government
efficiency (DOGE), sector-by-sector tariff impacts, climate change fiscal risk,
and the risk of conflict or regime change (Anacyclosis). Scenario tables
compare status quo, Project 2025, and BBB policy pathways across all key
domains.
2. Key Source Documents
Currently downloadable from:
https://www.VoteForTyler.Scafidi.org/public-uploads/Project_2025/
|
File Name |
Description |
|
1.
BUDGET-2024-PER.pdf |
White House 2024 budget/performance report |
|
2.
MSR Tables Fiscal Year 2025_1.pdf |
FY2025 Mid-Session Review: Budget tables (part 1) |
|
3.
MSR Tables Fiscal Year 2025_2.pdf |
FY2025 Mid-Session Review: Budget tables (part 2) |
|
4.
MSR Tables Fiscal Year 2025_3.pdf |
FY2025 Mid-Session Review: Budget tables (part 3) |
|
5.
Project 2025 text consolidated.pdf |
Consolidated Project 2025 policy/strategy document |
|
6.
project2025js_docintel.pdf |
Intelligence/analysis on Project 2025 |
|
7.
project-2025s-mandate-for-leadership-the-conservative-promise_original.pdf |
Full “Mandate for Leadership” policy book (Project 2025) |
|
8.
US Tax Balance Tariffs and Tax_cleaned.pdf |
US tax, tariff, and compliance cost analysis |
|
9.
Big Beautiful Bill (BBB) |
Supposed policy offshoot from Project 2025:
infrastructure, regulatory rollback, populist fiscal reform |
3. Comprehensive Scenario Table: Status Quo vs Project 2025 vs BBB (2026–2075)
Table 1 covers 2025, 2026, 2030, 2035.
Table 2 covers 2045, 2075.
Table 1:
Scenario Comparison (2025, 2026, 2030, 2035)
|
Metric / Scenario |
2025 Status Quo |
2025 Project 2025 |
2025 BBB |
2026 Status Quo |
2026 Project 2025 |
2026 BBB |
2030 Status Quo |
2030 Project 2025 |
2030 BBB |
2035 Status Quo |
2035 Project 2025 |
2035 BBB |
|
Debt/GDP (%) |
100 |
97 |
99 |
102 |
98 |
100 |
115 |
105 |
110 |
118 |
95 |
102 |
|
Deficit/GDP (%) |
6.2 |
4.7 |
5.4 |
6.0 |
4.5 |
5.2 |
5.8 |
3.5 |
4.8 |
5.5 |
2.5 |
4.2 |
|
SSA Solvency Status |
Solvent |
Solvent |
Solvent |
Solvent |
Solvent |
Solvent |
Solvent, near depletion |
Solvent |
Solvent |
Insolvent (~20–25% cut) |
Solvent (Reform) |
Solvent (BBB reform) |
|
GDP Growth (%) |
1.4 |
1.7 |
1.9 |
1.5 |
1.8 |
2.0 |
1.4 |
1.9 |
2.2 |
1.3 |
2.0 |
2.3 |
|
Inflation (%) |
2.8 |
2.3 |
2.6 |
2.3 |
2.0 |
2.5 |
2.1 |
2.0 |
2.6 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.8 |
|
Unemployment (%) |
4.2 |
3.8 |
3.7 |
4.0 |
3.7 |
3.5 |
4.5 |
3.5 |
3.2 |
4.8 |
3.3 |
3.0 |
|
Cost of Living Index (2025=100) |
100 |
100 |
100 |
105 |
102 |
108 |
112 |
106 |
114 |
120 |
109 |
122 |
|
Avg. US Home Price ($k) |
400 |
400 |
410 |
420 |
410 |
440 |
460 |
440 |
490 |
500 |
470 |
530 |
|
30yr Mortgage Rate (%) |
7.2 |
6.2 |
6.7 |
7.0 |
6.0 |
6.5 |
7.5 |
6.5 |
7.0 |
8.0 |
6.0 |
7.2 |
|
Avg. Monthly Mortgage ($) |
2,200 |
2,000 |
2,150 |
2,350 |
2,100 |
2,300 |
2,650 |
2,250 |
2,500 |
2,950 |
2,300 |
2,700 |
|
US Lives Lost (annual, all) |
3.35M |
3.30M |
3.30M |
3.4M |
3.3M |
3.3M |
3.5M |
3.3M |
3.3M |
3.6M |
3.2M |
3.2M |
|
Global Lives Lost (annual,
disas/conflict) |
12M |
12M |
12M |
13M |
12M |
12M |
15M |
13M |
13M |
17M |
13M |
13M |
|
Tariff Drag |
High |
Medium |
Medium |
High |
Medium |
Medium |
Medium |
Low |
Medium |
Medium |
Low |
Medium |
|
Moody’s/S&P/Fitch |
AAA (Neg Watch) |
AAA (Stable) |
AA+ (Pos) |
AAA (Neg Watch) |
AAA (Stable) |
AA+ (Pos) |
AA+ (Neg Watch) |
AAA (Stable) |
AA (Stable) |
AA (Negative) |
AA+/AAA (Stable) |
AA (Stable) |
|
Humanitarian/ICC Risk |
Moderate |
Moderate |
Moderate |
Moderate |
Moderate |
Moderate |
Moderate |
Low |
Moderate |
High |
Low |
Moderate |
|
DOGE/Asset Waste |
High |
Medium |
Medium |
High |
Medium |
Medium |
High |
Low |
Medium |
High |
Low |
Medium |
|
Fiscal Risk |
Medium |
Low |
Medium |
Medium |
Low |
Medium |
Medium |
Low |
Medium |
High |
Low |
Medium |
|
Civil/Global War Risk |
Low |
Low |
Low |
Low-Moderate |
Low |
Low |
Moderate |
Low |
Moderate |
Mod-High |
Low |
Mod-High |
|
Anacyclosis Risk |
Low |
Low |
Low |
Low |
Low |
Low |
Moderate |
Low |
Moderate |
Moderate |
Low |
Moderate |
Table 2:
Scenario Comparison (2045, 2075)
|
Metric / Scenario |
2045 Status Quo |
2045 Project 2025 |
2045 BBB |
2075 Status Quo |
2075 Project 2025 |
2075 BBB |
|
Debt/GDP (%) |
132 |
85 |
94 |
140–160 |
80–100 |
85–110 |
|
Deficit/GDP (%) |
5.3 |
1.5 |
3.0 |
5.0+ |
1.0–2.0 |
2.5–3.5 |
|
SSA Solvency Status |
Benefits cut, ongoing strain |
Solvent |
Solvent (BBB reform) |
Uncertain/Periodic Cuts |
Solvent |
Solvent (BBB reform) |
|
GDP Growth (%) |
1.1 |
2.2 |
2.5 |
1.0 |
2.3 |
2.6 |
|
Inflation (%) |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.9 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
3.0 |
|
Unemployment (%) |
5.2 |
3.0 |
2.8 |
5.5 |
2.8 |
2.6 |
|
Cost of Living Index (2025=100) |
135 |
116 |
128 |
160 |
130 |
140 |
|
Avg. US Home Price ($k) |
600 |
540 |
610 |
800 |
700 |
850 |
|
30yr Mortgage Rate (%) |
8.5 |
6.2 |
7.0 |
9.0 |
6.5 |
7.0 |
|
Avg. Monthly Mortgage ($) |
3,500 |
2,700 |
3,100 |
4,800 |
3,300 |
3,900 |
|
US Lives Lost (annual, all) |
3.7M |
3.1M |
3.1M |
4.0M |
3.0M |
2.9M |
|
Global Lives Lost (annual,
disas/conflict) |
21M |
13M |
13M |
30M |
15M |
15M |
|
Tariff Drag |
Low |
Low |
Medium |
Low |
Low |
Medium |
|
Moody’s/S&P/Fitch |
AA or lower |
AA+/AAA (S) |
AA+ (S) |
AA–A (Neg) |
AA+/AAA (S) |
AA+/AAA (S) |
|
Humanitarian/ICC Risk |
High |
Low |
Moderate |
High |
Low |
Moderate |
|
DOGE/Asset Waste |
High |
Low |
Medium |
High |
Low |
Medium |
|
Fiscal Risk |
High |
Low |
Low |
High |
Low |
Low |
|
Civil/Global War Risk |
Mod-High |
Low |
Moderate |
High |
Low |
Moderate |
|
Anacyclosis Risk |
High |
Low |
Moderate |
High |
Moderate |
Moderate |
Key Table Notes:
- SSA
Solvency: Trust fund depletion expected ~2033–2035 under status quo;
automatic benefit cuts unless Congress acts. BBB/Project 2025 propose
reforms to maintain solvency.
- Cost
of Living Index: 2025 baseline = 100; includes inflation, housing,
energy, and healthcare.
- Avg.
US Home Price: Median single-family home, rounded, using CBO/NAR
projections.
- Mortgage
Rate/Cost: 30-year fixed, average monthly payment on median home with
20% down.
- US/Global
Lives Lost: All-cause US mortality and global disaster/conflict
estimates (WHO, UN, CBO).
- Civil/Global
War Risk: Based on current trends, polarization, and global
instability.
- Anacyclosis
Risk: Theoretical risk of regime cycle/major US political
transformation.
4. Social Security (SSA) Solvency Timeline
- 2026–2032:
Solvent, reserves declining.
- 2033–2035:
Trust fund depleted. Automatic ~20–25% benefit cuts unless reformed.
- Post-2035:
Benefits paid from payroll taxes only, unless reformed (Project 2025/BBB
propose fixes).
5. Tariff & Sectoral Economic Impacts
- Manufacturing:
Higher input costs, net job losses downstream; BBB/Project 2025 propose
targeted relief and supply chain incentives.
- Agriculture:
Retaliatory tariffs; US farm exports hit, subsidies required. BBB proposes
reciprocal tariffs and export promotion.
- Consumer
Goods: Higher prices, costly supply chain shifts. BBB/Project 2025 aim
to stabilize prices via regulatory rollback.
- Automotive:
US-assembled vehicles costlier, production shifts abroad. BBB/Project 2025
propose domestic manufacturing incentives.
- Technology:
Higher costs for US firms, costly diversification. BBB/Project 2025
promote R&D and domestic sourcing.
- Energy:
Tariffs slow clean energy deployment. BBB/Project 2025 propose
infrastructure expansion and regulatory streamlining.
- Retail:
Margins squeezed, costs passed to consumers. BBB/Project 2025 aim for
margin relief via supply chain reforms.
Annual cost to US consumers/businesses: $57B+ (2024,
Peterson Institute).
Inflation impact: 0.2–0.4 percentage points (Brookings, 2025).
6. Climate Change & Fiscal Risk
- Physical
Risks: Increased disasters, sea level rise, and chronic heat reduce
GDP and increase federal costs.
- Scenarios:
- Lower
emissions: Debt/GDP 111.2% by 2048
- Intermediate:
Debt/GDP 111.9%
- Higher
emissions: Debt/GDP 112.6%
- Conclusion:
Climate action reduces long-term fiscal risks and GDP loss.
7. Humanitarian, Disaster, and ICC Accountability
- US
is the largest humanitarian donor, but >80% of aid now goes to
chronic, man-made crises (Gaza, Yemen, Ukraine, etc.), with risks of
diversion and poor oversight.
- Disaster
funding: Emergency aid often lacks robust oversight, risking waste.
- ICC
Jurisdiction (If US were a member):
- US
leaders could be investigated for war crimes, crimes against humanity, or
gross negligence in humanitarian/disaster response—especially where
intent or reckless disregard is proven.
- ICC
only acts if US courts refuse to investigate credible allegations; due
process applies.
8. Government Efficiency, Asset Management, and Ethics
- DOGE:
Mandate to audit and streamline government, cut waste, enforce
transparency. Can save billions, but not a substitute for structural
reform.
- Asset
Management Case Study: “Qatari Palace in the Sky”
- $400M+
luxury jet, $1B+ taxpayer retrofitting, likely never used as Air Force
One, potentially transferred for private use.
- Risks:
Violates federal ethics/property law, wastes taxpayer funds, sets
precedent for asset “laundering.”
- Best
Practice: All government assets must serve public benefit, with
Congressional/public oversight.
9. Conflict Risk, Civil War, and Anacyclosis
- Civil/Global
War Risk:
- Status
Quo: Rising polarization, economic stress, and trust erosion increase
risk of domestic unrest or even civil conflict by mid-century, especially
if fiscal/entitlement crises are not addressed.
- Global:
Multipolar instability, resource competition, and climate shocks heighten
risk of international wars.
- Anacyclosis:
- Ancient
theory of cyclical regime change (democracy → oligarchy → tyranny →
revolution → democracy, etc.).
- US
risk rises with persistent inequality, institutional decay, and loss of
confidence in rule of law.
- Robust
reforms, transparency, and inclusive growth are the best antidotes.
10. Policy Recommendations & Positive Trends
- Fiscal
Reform: BBB’s stimulus and Project 2025’s efficiency must be paired
with entitlement/tax reform, value-based healthcare, modernize tax code,
empower DOGE.
- Trade:
Move to targeted, data-driven tariffs, invest in supply chain resilience,
reciprocal tariffs for fair trade.
- Humanitarian:
Tie aid to accountability, transparency, anti-corruption.
- Efficiency
& Ethics: Strengthen DOGE, enforce asset oversight, real-time
reporting, whistleblower protection.
- Climate:
Invest in mitigation to avoid higher fiscal risk.
- Conflict
Prevention: Invest in civic trust, inclusive growth, and institutional
resilience.
11. Conclusion
- Without
reform, the US faces rising fiscal, economic, humanitarian, climate, and
conflict risks—along with declining financial ratings and living
standards.
- Robust
reforms can stabilize debt, keep Social Security solvent, maintain
top-tier financial ratings, reduce ICC/humanitarian risk, and restore
public trust.
- Project
2025 and BBB offer efficiency and stimulus opportunities, but must be
paired with transparency, ethical safeguards, and structural reforms to
succeed.
