Blog Post 7 - Unit 6 Individual Project - CS875: Futuring and Innovation - Colorado Technical University (CTU)

 Scenario Planning and Traditional Forecasting Goes Wrong at Nokia

Tyler Scafidi

Colorado Technical University

February 16, 2025

Scenario Planning and Traditional Forecasting Goes Wrong at Nokia

               Scenario planning is an exhaustive and deliberate attempt to anticipate future scenarios, responses to them, and involves more detail than traditional forecasting (Wade, 2012). Forecasting typically defines a worst-, best-, and most-likely-case scenario, which gives some managers a sense of control about their futures. However, Wade describes scenario planning as a more in-depth speculative process that accounts for an ever-changing landscape, and which considers a range of potential future outcomes/scenarios over the standard three. Furthermore, scenario planning tries to look at possible developments that could affect the trajectory/outcome of traditional forecasting.

               This case study focuses on Nokia, one of the best-selling mobile phone brands worldwide (in October 1998), which has become essentially obsolete in the mobile phone market in 2025 (Edo, 2022). I remember having several Nokia phones in my teenage/early adult years, and they were very trendy, tech-forward, and resilient at the time. The first bar phone that I remember having (the Nokia 3310) enabled me to have a phone wherever I went (mostly), and had a really nice Snake game. I remember my sisters going over my 300-minute plan regularly. The first Nokia flip-phone I had was around 2006, and it had a nice switch-blade type button to flip it open. The last Nokia I had was more like a blackberry, and was great. However, applications, software, and extended functionality were limited.

Figure one provides the first commercially-available cellular phone, which was created/provided by Motorola in the 1980s. Figure two is Nokia’s 1011 bar-style cell phone, which was one of the first mass-produced Global System for Mobile Communication (GSM) phones available, putting Nokia ahead of the competition. Figure three shows the Nokia 3210 that was on the market in 1998. The 3210 was more lightweight, smaller, and more convenient than traditional alternatives had been. Figure four shows the Nokia 3310, which is one of the first phones I remember having as an early teen (thanks to my grandmother). Figure five was one of Nokia’s leading cell phones in 2007, the year that Apple released their iPhone. Figure six shows how the first iPhone revolutionized the mobile phone market. Figure seven provides a timeline view of Nokia cell phones.

 

Figure 1

Analog (radio signal based) Motorola DynaTAC 8000X Mobile Phone in 1983.

Note: This is the first commercially available mobile phone, offered by Motorola in 1983. Retrieved from Web Designer Depot (Web Designer Depot, 2023).

 

Figure 2

Nokia 1011, the first mass-produced GSM mobile phone, from 1992-1994 (Mobile Phone Museum, n.d.).

Note: This cell phone revolutionized the cell phone market, and made Nokia an industry leader (Web Designer Depot, 2023).

 

Figure 3

People standing next to the Nokia 3210 in 1998.

Note: Image set in Dusseldorf, Germany in 1998; provided by John Robertson of Alamy (www.alamy.com). Retrieved from The Guardian (The Guardian, 2013).

 

Figure 4

A Nokia 3310 (circa 2000); the first Nokia phone I remember having at age 12.

Note: Image of Nokia 3310 at the second millennium/new forefront in Technology. Provided by Lenscap/Alamy. Retrieved from The Guardian (The Guardian, 2013).

 

Figure 5

Nokia N93i Clamshell Smartphone with a Digital Camcorder in 2007; the year the iPhone was released.

Note: 2007 is when Nokia began losing market share to Apple’s iPhone (Hunter, 2025; The Guardian, 2013).

 

Figure 6

Original iPhone, released on June 29, 2007 by Apple; the beginning of Nokia’s Forecasting Failures.

Note: Nokia maintained popularity overseas after the iPhone’s release; image taken from Imagine Games Network (IGN) (Hunter, 2025).

 

Figure 7

Nokia’s Mobile Phone Models Over Time.

Note: There may be some models not displayed. Retrieved from Flickr (Giménez, n.d.).

 

Scenario Planning Supports Planning and Change Innovation

               Traditional forecasting methods aim to develop a best-, worst-, and most-likely-case scenario outcome (Wade, 2012). Managers may consider well-known/predictable variables that may dictate those outcomes, but may or may not revisit/update the model regularly. They also may not take into account as many external factors, like innovation, competitors, regulatory changes, futurism predictions, market demands/gap analysis, or their own defined outcome, such as creating a new product people may not be aware they want yet. After all, the future is highly unpredictable, despite theories assuming consistent/predictable results.

               Instead, scenario planning takes several steps further, and aims to anticipate a range of outcomes, not just three. Scenario planners may be able to host a live/real-time model, but some may not. Scenario planning does not require sophisticated software or equipment, but it does require deep thought. It is iterative/constantly building-upon and improving itself with knowledge. Scenario planning may be what machine learning is mainly designed for. Like all learning, the more inputs available, the better the predictive model. However, seasoned and expert planners need to have some level of control on the decisions being made by machines/scenario planners. Scenario planning is often done as a group, ranging from nine to 30 participants, and may be broken-up into smaller groups (Wade, 2012).

               Scenario planning includes six main steps: 1) Framing the challenge; 2) Gathering information; 3) Identifying driving forces; 4) Defining the future’s critical “either/or” uncertainties; 5) Generating the scenarios; 6) Fleshing them out and creating story lines (Wade, 2012). After the scenarios have been determined, four additional steps are needed to act on them: 1) Validate scenarios, and determine if more research is needed; 2) Assess the implications and potential responses; 3) Identifying signposts/key performance indicators (KPIs); 4) Monitoring and updating the scenarios over time. While scenario planning is often done in a group, some recommended product development team structures include: functional structure, lightweight product manager structure, heavyweight product manager structure, and project execution teams (Bessant & Tidd, 2024). By following these guidelines, the environment for innovation and change is available.

Supporting Forces and Impact

               Nokia decided to focus on producing a profitable product for the short-term, in lieu of future innovations (Edo, 2022). While Nokia did continue trying to compete for several years after the iPhone’s initial release, they failed to address serious limitations of their Symbian mobile Operating System (OS). Managers feared losing stockholders/market share by admitting that Symbian OS was inferior, and were not the most technical. They lacked the appropriate insight and forethought needed to outpace Apple. Their managers are described as being temperamental, frightened, and lacking sufficient technical competence.

               Not only did Nokia fail to innovate, but in their pursuit to keep up, several of their come-back strategies also failed (Vaia Editorial Team, n.d.). Apple set the stage with the touchscreen-based phones, but after Android Operating System (OS) came along, Nokia neglected to adopt the trending touchscreen technology, claiming that users would prefer to have a traditional QWERTY keypad. They also tried working with Microsoft on Windows mobile Oses deployed on Nokias. I remember having one, and it was not so bad. However, the features and software were very limited, and offered no real new features to convince consumers to switch.

               Additional forces that contributed to the traditional forecasting failure Nokia experienced were things like: failed marketing campaigns, neglecting software development, thinking they were too big to fail, ineffective/lack of innovation, and organizational dysfunction (Vaia Editorial Team, n.d.). Nokia tried to mimic Samsung’s umbrella marketing approach by designing their “Lumia” series, but was too late. By then, Samsung and Apple had major market share. Engineers had concerns about the Symbian Operating System (OS), but feared management would not listen; they knew it would still take years to catch-up, much less lead. Nokia also enjoyed customer loyalty for many years, and led them to become complacent about technology trends. Organizational restructuring led to dysfunctional management, and employee resentment.             

Using Scenario Planning for Future Innovation Efforts

               Again, traditional forecasting focuses on determining a best-, worst-, and most-likely-case scenario to plan for (Wade, 2012). Scenario planning requires considering more inputs, and developing more of a potential outcome range to plan for. Figure eight is an example of the scenario planning process, which includes: situational analysis, projections, scenarios, and implications (Beale, 2024). Situational analysis is centered around Society, Technology, Economic, Environment and Ecology, and Politics and Law (STEEP), which help planners to identify areas that market drivers are most important in (by impact level, likelihood, and/or breadth).

 

Figure 8

The Scenario Development Process (expanded).

Note: Process as described by ITONICS, a scenario planning software provider (Beale, 2024).

 

               Projections are based on many factors, including the time horizon, in which five to ten years in the future is recommended (Beale, 2024). Critical uncertainties must be identified, and plausible scenarios must be extrapolated. Each driver must be forecasted as well, in which planners need to anticipate the best-, worst-, and most-likely-case scenarios for. Figure nine is an example of how scenarios are plotted based upon pairs of selected drivers (e.g. a demand driver, and a solution driver); each intersection between the two uncover scenarios. The process is repeated as much as needed, and all scenarios are plotted/recorded to find the best internal consistency points and scenario options to prioritize going forward.

 

Figure 9

Scenario Planning Demand and Solution Driver Intersection Chart Plotting.

Note: This chart represents ITONICS’ method of demand driver and solution driver charting (Beale, 2024).

              

               Overall, it is important to implement scenario planning in life, but most likely in business. While many scenarios may exist, planners should focus on the most-likely scenarios, look for internal consistency, and rely on internal stakeholders for scenario planning (Beale, 2024). After all, Nokia fell short on their software development due to demotivated and neglected-feeling engineers/staff (Vaia Editorial Team, n.d.). It is easy to reject/not look for negative information about yourself/company, but doing so provides an opportunity to improve. Often, it is not responding to market demands that blindside companies.

Scenario Planning Around Social Impacts of Change

               Social impacts that may negate change can be: change agents/demand, businesses, products, services, etc. Since we cannot predict all future events, it would be nearly impossible to plan for a particular date range for a major social shift, like in recent United States Presidential elections or the California Wildfires in 2024. Those were two major social impacts of change; one has completely changed the national landscape and culture, while the other has had significant demands on local districts to perform and plan better. However, the best way to prepare for the unexpected is to prepare for it, and prepare for how to handle the unexpected. Often, it is not the events that determine the outcome, but how they are handled. If an unexpected social rebellion comes up, maybe have other product lines/services, hedge investments, petition/negotiate for change, etc.

Summary

               While scenario planning is the recommended standard to managing and developing innovation, traditional, or any, forecasting is better than nothing. Traditional forecasting requires a bit less formal planning, and can be done in nearly any situation, and by any person. Even animals must consider the best-, worst-, and most-likely-case scenarios. Scenario planning is essential to being a responsible, much less independently-successful, adult. In cybersecurity, the environment is constantly changing, and has many more drivers to consider. That is why cybersecurity professional build resilient defensive systems, and constantly iterate/respond to much fewer events than they would have to. However, when the resources are available to invest in detailed scenario planning, systems, and software, it would be a great investment to make to ensure that the business survives instead of responding late and closing, like Nokia.

References

Beale, M. (2024, November 5). Scenario planning: developing pictures of the future. Retrieved from itonics-innovation.com: https://www.itonics-innovation.com/blog/scenario-planning

Bessant, J. R., & Tidd, J. (2024). Managing Innovation: Integrating Technological, Market and Organizational Change (8th ed.). Wiley Global Education US. Retrieved from https://coloradotech.vitalsource.com/reader/books/9781394252053/epubcfi/6/32[%3Bvnd.vst.idref%3DAc07]!/4

Edo, J. J. (2022, March 3). Scenario-Type planning and Nokia’s smartphone failure. Retrieved from medium.com: https://medium.com/@JacobsEdo/scenario-type-planning-and-nokias-smartphone-failure-468c8a00344f

Giménez, F. (n.d.). Nokia Timeline. Retrieved February 16, 2025, from flickr.com: https://www.flickr.com/photos/fgimenez/2043009273

Heteit, L., Daniel, C., Flynn, A., & Farah, S. (2024, February 23). Why the social sector needs scenario planning now. Retrieved from bcg.com: https://www.bcg.com/publications/2020/why-social-sector-needs-scenario-planning

Hunter, N. (2025, February 5). Every iPhone Generation: A full history of release dates - IGN. Retrieved from ign.com: https://www.ign.com/articles/all-iphone-release-dates-in-order

Mobile Phone Museum. (n.d.). Nokia - 1011. Retrieved February 16, 2025, from mobilephonemuseum.com: https://www.mobilephonemuseum.com/phone-detail/1011

The Guardian. (2013, September 3). Nokia handsets over the years - in pictures. Retrieved from theguardian.com: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/gallery/2013/sep/03/nokia-mobile-phones-over-the-years

Vaia Editorial Team. (n.d.). Nokia Change Management: Plan & Failure | VAiA. Retrieved February 16, 2025, from vaia.com: https://www.vaia.com/en-us/explanations/business-studies/business-case-studies/nokia-change-management/

Wade, W. (2012). Scenario Planning. Wiley Profession, Reference & Trade (Wiley K&L). Retrieved from https://coloradotech.vitalsource.com/reader/books/9781118237410/epubcfi/6/2[%3Bvnd.vst.idref%3Dcover]!/4/2/4/6%4050:98

Web Designer Depot. (2023, December 26). The evolution of cell phone design between 1983-2009 | Web Designer Depot. Retrieved from webdesignerdepot.com: https://webdesignerdepot.com/the-evolution-of-cell-phone-design-between-1983-2009/